Political Physics: The Palin Theorem
A blogumn by Monique King-Viehland
Clear-headed political analysis while everyone else is yelling and screaming
The Palin Factor – It’s Not All About Gender
In recent history, the support of evangelical Christian voters has been more important to the Republican Party than ever. In truth, without the far right, George Bush would likely have lost the 2000 and 2004 elections. These days, it’s hard for a Republican to get elected without strongly opposing abortion, same-sex marriage and gun control.
In contrast, lets take a look at the Republican Nominee for President John McCain. In 1999, he was quoted in the San Francisco Chronicle as arguing against overturning Roe v. Wade, because he believed that it would lead to an epidemic of illegal abortions. In 2005, McCain opposed a federal gay-marriage ban. And in 2006, the Almanac of American Politics, which tracks and ranks votes on legislation as liberal or conservative, indicated that McCain voted “liberal” 53% of the time.
There are right wing Christian conservatives who would argue that calling John McCain a “conservative” is a real stretch. But If McCain wanted to secure the votes from the majority of his own party, he needed to win over his right wing colleagues.
Enter Sarah Palin.
Yes, John McCain and his advisers strategically thought that choosing a woman Vice Presidential candidate could lure some of those disgruntled, 18 million Hilary supporters to their side. But I would argue that this is not the only (or main) reason he chose Sarah Palin as his Vice President.
Sarah Palin opposes abortion, marriage equality and gun control – the trifecta for Christian conservatives. Palin, a member of “Feminists for Life,” a group that opposes abortion even in cases of rape or incest, and a self-professed “average hockey mom,” was hailed as Ronald Reagan reincarnated by delegates at the Republican National Convention after her acceptance speech.
So, McCain took a gamble and it appears to be working, his approval rating among Christian conservatives has gone up nearly 10 points in the past three weeks. And his decision is also yielding some gender bi-product – in the most recent New York Times/CBS News poll, 17% of women voters who said they had voted for Hilary Clinton in the primaries say they now support John McCain.
Will that get John McCain elected as our next President of the United States?
I hope not – Go Obama!
Got a differing opinion? We want to hear it. Fierce And Nerdy is currently looking for a Republican blogger to give clear-headed political analysis of the hottest election season to date. Contact etc@fierceandnerdy.com for more info.
Monique,
I absolutely agree with you. If McCain narrowed his VP search to Republican women, he certainly had options beyond Palin. He could have chosen someone like Olympia Snowe the Senator from Maine, but she would not have been conservative enough to shore up the right-wing base. I think he chose Palin because her politics are to the extreme right and because her lack of experience allows McCain to control her. We can be sure that whatever she says in the next 6 weeks will have been carefully crafted by campaign strategist and speech writers.
I don’t think (and am hoping also) it will be enough for McCain to win. The Republican base is shrinking so energized or not it is a smaller number. And if Obama ignores all this talk about “hockey moms” and “Hilary Supporters” and focuses on energizing his base: young people, progressives, and African Americans we will be celebrating another historic moment come January 20th.
Monique,
I absolutely agree with you. If McCain narrowed his VP search to Republican women, he certainly had options beyond Palin. He could have chosen someone like Olympia Snowe the Senator from Maine, but she would not have been conservative enough to shore up the right-wing base. I think he chose Palin because her politics are to the extreme right and because her lack of experience allows McCain to control her. We can be sure that whatever she says in the next 6 weeks will have been carefully crafted by campaign strategist and speech writers.
I don’t think (and am hoping also) it will be enough for McCain to win. The Republican base is shrinking so energized or not it is a smaller number. And if Obama ignores all this talk about “hockey moms” and “Hilary Supporters” and focuses on energizing his base: young people, progressives, and African Americans we will be celebrating another historic moment come January 20th.
Katrina –
You’re correct that were women on the vetting list who were much better suited than Palin. I agree McCain and his strategists thought that given her inexperience on the national stage she would be easier to control. But the funny thing is I think that may backfire on him. She is much more charismatic then McCain and more aggresive then they bargained for. I’ve heard that they have already been chanting Palin-McCain versus McCain-Palin. I am sure McCain is loving that!
Katrina –
You’re correct that were women on the vetting list who were much better suited than Palin. I agree McCain and his strategists thought that given her inexperience on the national stage she would be easier to control. But the funny thing is I think that may backfire on him. She is much more charismatic then McCain and more aggresive then they bargained for. I’ve heard that they have already been chanting Palin-McCain versus McCain-Palin. I am sure McCain is loving that!
Here’s what gets Uncle Mikey’s underwear in a wad:
By selecting Palin, the GOP has not only solidified the conservative base. They’ve not only gone, more than a bit cynically, after the Female Vote. No, no. They’ve done much more: they’ve co-opted the Change Argument.
The moment that Palin came on the ticket, McCain’s campaign shifted the focus of his candidacy. It’s no longer about experience. It’s about being a maverick, bringing true change to Washington. They’ve managed to cast McCain-Palin as the political equivalent of Western Gunslingers riding into town on a snow-mobile to clean up the joint. And, by the same token, Obama-Biden are now the Establishment Candidates, agents of The Man who are gonna keep the good people of small town American down with their fancy degrees and their community organizing.
Is any of this “true?” Nope. Is it in direct opposition to what McCain has been saying for over a year: Pretty much. Does it matter: Not particularly.
Because it’s a good narrative being advanced, strongly, by the entire GOP. Every single right-leaning pundit, every member of the GOP, ever representative of the McCain camp is saying the same thing. And they’re saying it over and over again.
Repetition will win out over truth every time.
Repetition will win out over truth every time.
Repetition is how George W. Bush–the elite scion of an elite family–convinced the majority (sort of) of ‘Mericans that he was “just like them.” It’s how the American people were convinced that Iraq had Weapons of Mass Destruction despite evidence to the contrary. And it’s how McCain’s campaign hopes to win the election.
Obama won the nomination not because he was stronger on the issues than Clinton (they were nearly identical on most of them), but because he had the stronger narrative. Right now, McCain has the stronger narrative.
That shouldn’t be, but it is.
And that gets Uncle Mikey’s underwear in a wad.
Thus endeth the stupidly long blog comment.
Here’s what gets Uncle Mikey’s underwear in a wad:
By selecting Palin, the GOP has not only solidified the conservative base. They’ve not only gone, more than a bit cynically, after the Female Vote. No, no. They’ve done much more: they’ve co-opted the Change Argument.
The moment that Palin came on the ticket, McCain’s campaign shifted the focus of his candidacy. It’s no longer about experience. It’s about being a maverick, bringing true change to Washington. They’ve managed to cast McCain-Palin as the political equivalent of Western Gunslingers riding into town on a snow-mobile to clean up the joint. And, by the same token, Obama-Biden are now the Establishment Candidates, agents of The Man who are gonna keep the good people of small town American down with their fancy degrees and their community organizing.
Is any of this “true?” Nope. Is it in direct opposition to what McCain has been saying for over a year: Pretty much. Does it matter: Not particularly.
Because it’s a good narrative being advanced, strongly, by the entire GOP. Every single right-leaning pundit, every member of the GOP, ever representative of the McCain camp is saying the same thing. And they’re saying it over and over again.
Repetition will win out over truth every time.
Repetition will win out over truth every time.
Repetition is how George W. Bush–the elite scion of an elite family–convinced the majority (sort of) of ‘Mericans that he was “just like them.” It’s how the American people were convinced that Iraq had Weapons of Mass Destruction despite evidence to the contrary. And it’s how McCain’s campaign hopes to win the election.
Obama won the nomination not because he was stronger on the issues than Clinton (they were nearly identical on most of them), but because he had the stronger narrative. Right now, McCain has the stronger narrative.
That shouldn’t be, but it is.
And that gets Uncle Mikey’s underwear in a wad.
Thus endeth the stupidly long blog comment.
Uncle Mikey –
The “maverick” argument drives me crazy as well. But more than being angry at the McCain camp for what is clearly misdirection, I am disappointed in the Obama camp for being slow to respond to this obvious ploy. I think the “more of the same ads” are a good start, but they need to attack it head on or your right the public perception will be that Obama-Biden is “more of the same.”
Uncle Mikey –
The “maverick” argument drives me crazy as well. But more than being angry at the McCain camp for what is clearly misdirection, I am disappointed in the Obama camp for being slow to respond to this obvious ploy. I think the “more of the same ads” are a good start, but they need to attack it head on or your right the public perception will be that Obama-Biden is “more of the same.”
Monique and Uncle Mickey –
You all should be happy. Obama has put out an ad directly attacking the “maverick” theme. We shall see if it works.
Monique and Uncle Mickey –
You all should be happy. Obama has put out an ad directly attacking the “maverick” theme. We shall see if it works.
forgot the link to the ad: here ya go
http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=NBtbG5xjFBY
forgot the link to the ad: here ya go
http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=NBtbG5xjFBY
forgot the link to the ad: here ya go
http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=NBtbG5xjFBY
Katrina –
Thanks for sharing. Now that is what I am talking about! Now they need to take that message to the campaign trail, on their email distribution lists, etc. And while their at it, I’d suggest a campaign at praising all of the “community organizers” of the world (e.g., church members, volunteers, teachers, neighborhood associations, the PTA, etc.) who are on the front line of our communities trying to make a difference. You know people like you and me.
Katrina –
Thanks for sharing. Now that is what I am talking about! Now they need to take that message to the campaign trail, on their email distribution lists, etc. And while their at it, I’d suggest a campaign at praising all of the “community organizers” of the world (e.g., church members, volunteers, teachers, neighborhood associations, the PTA, etc.) who are on the front line of our communities trying to make a difference. You know people like you and me.
Katrina –
Thanks for sharing. Now that is what I am talking about! Now they need to take that message to the campaign trail, on their email distribution lists, etc. And while their at it, I’d suggest a campaign at praising all of the “community organizers” of the world (e.g., church members, volunteers, teachers, neighborhood associations, the PTA, etc.) who are on the front line of our communities trying to make a difference. You know people like you and me.
Monique,
Your ‘clearheaded’ analysis is spot on. It’s terribly difficult to not yell and scream, though, when it is so infuriating how the RNC has again turned the election into a personality issue/social issue for voters. I think this was one of the top reasons for picking Palin amongst a sea of better-prepared and more experienced VP choices.
McCain’s own campaign adviser told the Washington Post that the ‘election is not about issues’. Wha…..?? So, McCain and his maverick self pretty much knows that he can’t win when it comes to his outdated and outmoded platforms on health care, the tragic economy or education. So, for a while, he focused on defense and foreign policy. Then Biden entered the picture and sort of wrapped up that angle for the Democrats. So now, after ditching the maverick angle he is going back to Rove/Cheney politics and going for the social conservatives to vote with their Bible. Forget the employment rate and the uninsured, vote for the team that doesn’t want a rape victim to have a choice!
His campaign has basically devolved back into identity politics and the disgusting new attack ads against Obama are, I fear, just the beginning of the surge. The worst part is that, just like the past 8 years, it’s working.
Monique,
Your ‘clearheaded’ analysis is spot on. It’s terribly difficult to not yell and scream, though, when it is so infuriating how the RNC has again turned the election into a personality issue/social issue for voters. I think this was one of the top reasons for picking Palin amongst a sea of better-prepared and more experienced VP choices.
McCain’s own campaign adviser told the Washington Post that the ‘election is not about issues’. Wha…..?? So, McCain and his maverick self pretty much knows that he can’t win when it comes to his outdated and outmoded platforms on health care, the tragic economy or education. So, for a while, he focused on defense and foreign policy. Then Biden entered the picture and sort of wrapped up that angle for the Democrats. So now, after ditching the maverick angle he is going back to Rove/Cheney politics and going for the social conservatives to vote with their Bible. Forget the employment rate and the uninsured, vote for the team that doesn’t want a rape victim to have a choice!
His campaign has basically devolved back into identity politics and the disgusting new attack ads against Obama are, I fear, just the beginning of the surge. The worst part is that, just like the past 8 years, it’s working.
Monique,
Your ‘clearheaded’ analysis is spot on. It’s terribly difficult to not yell and scream, though, when it is so infuriating how the RNC has again turned the election into a personality issue/social issue for voters. I think this was one of the top reasons for picking Palin amongst a sea of better-prepared and more experienced VP choices.
McCain’s own campaign adviser told the Washington Post that the ‘election is not about issues’. Wha…..?? So, McCain and his maverick self pretty much knows that he can’t win when it comes to his outdated and outmoded platforms on health care, the tragic economy or education. So, for a while, he focused on defense and foreign policy. Then Biden entered the picture and sort of wrapped up that angle for the Democrats. So now, after ditching the maverick angle he is going back to Rove/Cheney politics and going for the social conservatives to vote with their Bible. Forget the employment rate and the uninsured, vote for the team that doesn’t want a rape victim to have a choice!
His campaign has basically devolved back into identity politics and the disgusting new attack ads against Obama are, I fear, just the beginning of the surge. The worst part is that, just like the past 8 years, it’s working.